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# need help with a simple probability problem

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Probability of Tom playing is 0.6 if he is selected his probability for scoring is 0.8.

the probability of Jerry scoring is 0.45

so we have the following diagram

0.6-Tom playing      - 0.6 -> score    -0.4 -> not score

0.4 Jerry playing   -  0.45-> score  -o.gg -> not score

so

If jerry plays in the next two succesive games calculate the probability  of him scoring in just one of the matches.

So what i did was multiply the probabilities :

(0.4*0.45*0.4*0.55) = 0.039

However the book gives me a different answer on the back , it says 0.495

What am i doing wrong? does the book have a mistake?

Guest Sep 18, 2017
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### 1+0 Answers

#1
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If jerry plays in the next two succesive games calculate the probability  of him scoring in just one of the matches.

the probability of Jerry scoring is 0.45

the probability of Jerry not scoring is 0.55

scoring in just one of the matches = 0.45 * 0.55 + 0.55 * 0.45 = 0.495

heureka  Sep 18, 2017

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