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 #1
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Jul 2, 2024
 #1
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Jul 2, 2024
 #1
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Interestingly, the probability that NO teams finish with the same number of wins is much easier to calculate than the probability of at least two teams having the same number.

 

Here's why:

 

Total Order of Wins: In a round-robin tournament with no ties, there must be a total order for the teams based on their wins. There will be one team with the most wins (let's call it W), another team with the second-most wins (W-1), and so on, down to a team with the least wins (L).

 

Number of Wins: Since each team plays every other team exactly once, the total number of wins and losses for all teams must be equal: (Number of teams) * (Wins per team) = (Number of teams) * (Losses per team) --> 6 * Wins = 6 * Losses.

 

Therefore, each team must have either 3 wins and 3 losses (middle ground) or 2 wins and 4 losses (bottom half) or 4 wins and 2 losses (top half). There are 3 possible wins for each team (2, 3, or 4).

 

Ordering the Wins: Once we know the number of wins for each team, we just need to order them. There are 6! (6 factorial) ways to order 6 distinct elements, but in this case, 3 of the elements have the same value ("3 wins"), so we've overcounted.

 

There are 3! ways to order the elements with 3 wins (W-1, W, W+1), so we need to divide 6! by 3! to account for this. This gives us the total number of ways for a complete ordering of wins (no ties) as: (6!)/3! = 120.

 

Probability of No Ties: Since there are no ties, all the games must be decided with a win or loss, and the probability of winning any game is 1/2, the total number of possible outcomes for the entire tournament is 2 raised to the power of the total number of games (each game has 2 outcomes).

 

In a round-robin tournament with n teams, there are n*(n-1)/2 games played. So, the total number of outcomes is: 2^(n*(n-1)/2). For n=6 teams, this is: 2^(6*5)/2 = 2^15.

 

Therefore, the probability that there are NO ties and a complete ordering of wins (no teams with the same number of wins) is: (Number of favorable outcomes) / (Total number of outcomes) = (120) / (2^15)

 

This is the easiest outcome to calculate. The actual question asks for the probability of AT LEAST two teams having the same number of wins.

Since the total probability is 1, the probability of at least two teams having the same number of wins is the complement of the probability of no ties:

 

Probability (At least two teams with same wins) = 1 - Probability (No ties)

= 1 - (120) / (2^15)

 

This is the answer, but it's a bit cumbersome. We can simplify it further.

 

Notice that the 2 in the denominator (2^15) can be factored out as 2 * (2^14).

 

In the numerator, we can rewrite 120 as (2^3 * 3 * 5).

 

So the probability becomes:

 

1 - ( 2^3 * 3 * 5) / (2 * 2^14)

 

Rewrite to group the 2's:

 

1 - ( 2^2 * 3 * 5) / (2^15)

 

Take out a common factor of 2:

 

1 - (2 * 3 * 5) / (2^14)

 

Since 2 is in both the numerator and denominator, we can divide them, leaving:

 

1 - (3 * 5) / (2^13)

 

This is the most simplified form of the answer: 1 - (15/8192) = 8177/8192

May 14, 2024
 #1
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There are two main cases to consider:

 

Case 1: Each row has exactly one child from each family.

 

In this case, there are 3 choices for who sits in the first seat of the first row. Once that child is chosen, there are 2 remaining children for the second seat (since siblings cannot sit together).

 

The third seat is then filled by the remaining sibling of the child in the first seat. Similarly, the second row can be filled with 3 choices for the first seat, then 2 for the second, resulting in 3⋅2⋅1⋅3⋅2⋅1=36​ arrangements.

 

Case 2: One row has two children from the same family.

 

Here, we can further divide into two subcases:

 

Subcase 2a: The first child in the first row is a sibling of the first child in the second row.

 

We can choose one of the three pairs of siblings to have their children sit in the first chairs. There are then 2 ways to order those siblings within the pair. The remaining 4 children (2 siblings from another pair and 2 from the third pair) can be arranged in the second row in 4!=24 ways.

 

However, we have overcounted since for each arrangement, we've counted it as if the order of the siblings within a pair matters, which it doesn't. Therefore, we must divide by 2!⋅2! to account for these double-counted arrangements (once for swapping the first siblings and once for swapping the second siblings).

 

This gives us $ \dfrac{3 \cdot 2 \cdot 24}{2! \cdot 2!} = 36$ arrangements.

 

Subcase 2b: The first child in the first row is NOT a sibling of the first child in the second row.

 

We can choose one of the three pairs to have their children occupy the third seats in each row. The remaining 4 children can then be arranged in the first row in 4! ways. Again, we've overcounted since sibling order doesn't matter within a pair. Dividing by 2!⋅2! gives us $ \dfrac{3 \cdot 24}{2! \cdot 2!} = 36$ arrangements.

 

Since Cases 1 and 2 are mutually exclusive, to find the total number of arrangements, we simply add the number of arrangements from each case: 36+36+36=108​

 

Therefore, the answer is 108.

Apr 22, 2024