Wow, thats a lot of information. I'm only in Algebra, but I can try find out the probability, but it's been a long time since I ever had to find a probability.You said it happened once in the past 6 years, thats in 2010, but you also said that it did not occur before 2010. Then you said it happened in 2013 and has not occured since. There is a difference of 3 years. It could happen again in 2016 and then maybe even 2019, probably every 3 years until the issue is resolved.