Probability of a loss of an event and frequency

I think I will need more information to find out the probability of an event happening again. We know it happened once in the past 6 years, but when did it not happen once? How long was it since the event happened? You should try asking CPhill or Melody for help. I can sitll try to help though, if you can provide more information.

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Hello!

Thanks for the speedy reply.

Basically, the event could not occur before 2010 as the situation did not exist.

It occurred in 2013 and it has not ocurred since.

It can still happen as the situation has not been resolved, but the damage (the loss) has been capped to events between 2010-2015.

It is unlikely to happen again considering external non-mathematical factors but this is really a guess.

Does this help at all?

Wow, thats a lot of information. I'm only in Algebra, but I can try find out the probability, but it's been a long time since I ever had to find a probability.You said it happened once in the past 6 years, thats in 2010, but you also said that it did not occur before 2010. Then you said it happened in 2013 and has not occured since. There is a difference of 3 years. It could happen again in 2016 and then maybe even 2019, probably every 3 years until the issue is resolved.

Oh, I remember now. You have to divide the number of outcomes by the total possible number of outcomes. Say this issue happens every 3 years for 100 years, that issue would happen about 33 times. So, 3/33 = 1/11 = 0.0909090909090909.That is the probability of the event happening. I thought this would be hard for me since I haven't done it in forever.

Thanks Chris,

It is impossible to answer this question - there simply is not enough information to base an answer on :)

Hello!

Thanks again...Ok so maybe this helps,

There was a loss realized on part of an activity in 2013 for 300,000€ and has not happened again.

The loss was related to certain activity that happened between 2010 and 2013.

A mitigating action was put in place so that such issue does not occur again. So risk for this is zero and probability zero.

However, a similar activity is running the risk of having the same issue.

It started in 2010 and has ran until 2015. In 2015 mitigating actions have been taken to stop the future issues, but the actions between 2010-2015 cannot be mitigated and the risk remains that a loss may occur for these.

The estimated risk is max 50mio-min 5 million (1mio per year)

We could say that both activities are the same so the issue has happened 1 in 6 years and 3 years ago.

Do you need more information?

Many thanks!