I conjecture that the answer is 256 (= 29-1) based on extrapolating results for sets {1,2}, {1,2,3} and {1,2,3,4}. However, I have yet to find an elegant proof!
Partial reasoning:
If we have a number of arrangements for the set A = {1,...,n-1} then we can immediately get that many again for the set B = {1, ...,n} by simply putting n after all the arrangements for A. Any extra arrangements for B must end in 1, because if they end in anything other than 1 or n, the end value will be bigger than 1 and smaller than n, violating the criteria. It seems that there are just as many arrangements ending in 1 as there are ending in n, hence, since there are just 2 arrangements, for the set {1.2} each extra digit doubles the number of arrangements. There must be a simple proof of the fact that there are just as many arrangements ending in 1 as there are ending in n (if it's true!), but I'm having a mental block trying to see it!
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