reinout-g

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Usernamereinout-g
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 #43
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Here is an update on the probability puzzles!
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Easier one: 

The fabulous game host Steve offer you a bag with 5001 pearls of which 2501 are white and 2500 are black. He asks you to draw as many pearls from the bag as you desire without looking. Steve then tells you how many black and white pearls you drew. If there are equally as much white as black pearls in the draw you gain €10 for each pearl you drew. How many pearls should you draw?

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Hard one (still unanswered): 

You and your best friend have been arrested for several white collar crimes. (Or something else which is more classy than stealing a candy bar) 
Your attorney has told you the police has only got enough evidence to put you and your friend behind bars for 3 years. 
However, the both of you are given the option to confess. If both of you confess you will both serve 10 years, 
if one of you confesses and the other does not, the one who did not confess will serve 20 years. 
Obviously, if you both remain silent you will both serve 3 years. 
You are not allowed to have any communication with your friend. 
Suppose your main priority is to keep yourself out of jail, and your secondary priority is to keep your partner out of jail. 
You have decided that you find it twice as important to keep yourself out of jail as you find it important to keep your partner out of jail. 
(So for example, in your opinion him serving 10 years is equal to you serving 5). 
You estimate the chance of your partner confessing p. 
For which values of p will you choose to confess and for which values will you keep silent? 

HINT: make a formula for the amount of suffering you expect, also taking the suffering for your friends jailtime into account.


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Reinout-g 

May 7, 2014