A multiple choice exam has 4 choices for each question. A student has studied enough so that the probability they will know the answer to a question is 0.5, the probability that they will be able to eliminate one choice is 0.25, otherwise all 4 choices seem equally plausible. If they know the answer they will get the question right. If not, they have to guess from the 3 or 4 choices. As the teacher, you want to test to measure what the student knows. If the student answers a question correctly, what is the probability they knew the answer?
