Alice, Bob, and Carol repeatedly take turns tossing a die. Alice begins; Bob always follows Alice; Carol always follows Bob, and Alice always follows Carol. Find the probability that Carol will be the first one to toss a six. (The probability of obtaining a six on any toss is, independent of the outcome of any other toss.
This is how far I got:
A - B - C
Alice has a 56 chance of NOT rolling a 6 , and so does Bob. So if you go in the order of the game, there is a 2536chance that Alice and Bob won't roll a 6 during their turns. Since the next turn is Carol, the probability of her rolling a 6 is 16 . Therefore, the probability of Carol being the first one to toss a 6 is 16∗2536=25216.
This is incorrect because the correct answer on the Art of Problem Solving website is 2591
Can someone please explain why I am incorrect?
Here is what might help:
https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/1327201/probability-that-on-three-rolls-of-dice-there-will-be-at-least-one-6-showing-up
I understand now, and plus I discovered that its easier to just turn the question around and solve.