Ryan has 3 red lava lamps and 3 blue lava lamps. He arranges them in a row on a shelf randomly, then turns 3 random lamps on. What is the probability that the leftmost lamp on the shelf is red, and the leftmost lamp which is turned on is also red?
I have found that the answer is 7/20. However my answer is 27/80.
Here's what I'm thinking :
We should do some casework here.
Case 1 : the leftmost lamp is red and it is on -- prob : (3/6 * 1/2) = 1/4
Case 2 : the leftmost lamp is red and off & the next one is red and on -- prob : (3/6 * 1/2) * (2/5 * 1/2) = 1/20
Case 3 : the leftmost lamp is red and off & the next one is red and off & the one after that is red and on -- prob : (3/6 * 1/2) * (2/5 * 1/2) * (1/4 * 1/2) = 1/160
Case 4 : the leftmost lamp is red and off & the next one is blue and off & the one after that is red and on -- prob : (3/6 * 1/2) * (3/5 * 1/2) * (1/2 * 1/2) = 3/160
Case 5 : the leftmost lamp is red and off & the next one is blue and off & the one after that is blue and off & the one after that is red and on -- prob : (3/6 * 1/2) * (3/5 * 1/2) * (1/2 * 1/2) * (2/3 * 1/2) = 1/160
Case 6 : the leftmost lamp is red and off & the next one is red and off & the one after that is blue and off & the one after that is red and on -- prob : (3/6 * 1/2) * (2/5 * 1/2) * (3/4 * 1/2) * (1/3 * 1/2) = 1/320
Case 7 : the leftmost lamp is red and off & the next one is blue and off & the one after that is red and off & the one after that is red and on -- prob : (3/6 * 1/2) * (3/5 * 1/2) * (1/2 * 1/2) * (1/3 * 1/2) = 1/320
Now we add all of these up...
1/4 + 1/20 + 1/160 + 3/160 + 1/160 + 1/320 + 1/320 = 27/80
I can't seem to figure out what I did wrong here...did I skip any cases???
My answer is only 1/80 away from the correct one..
Any help is greatly appreciated!
Thank You, and Happy New Year 2021!!!!
Happy new year!
Perhaps we can simplify the cases. We know that the probability the leftmost lamp is red is 1/2, so we just multiply our final answer by that.
Case 1: leftmost lamp is on (and obviously red)
5 choose 2/ 6 choose 3 = 1/2
Case 2: the second lamp is the first on and is red
1/2 * 3/5 *2/5 = 3/25
Case 3: the third lamp is the first on and is red
1/2 *2/5 *3/4 * 2/5 = 3/50
Case 4: the fourth lamp is the first on and is red
1/2 * 2/5 *1/4* 1 *2/5 = 1/50
Not sure where you went wrong... though.