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You are about to visit Jamestown in North Dakota, to see the world's largest buffalo monument. You know that it snows 25% of the time in North Dakota, and you are thinking about bringing your parka. It turns out that you have three friends who live in North Dakota, but they are not very trustworthy: Each tells the truth 2/3 of the time, and lies for the remaining 1/3. You call your three friends, and each friend tells you that it is indeed snowing in North Dakota. Given this information, what is the probability that it is actually snowing in North Dakota?

 Jun 10, 2020
 #1
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Using conditional probability, the probability works out to 11/17.  You can't trust your friends!

 Jun 10, 2020
 #2
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There should be a (2/3)^3 chance it is snowing, plus (1/3)^3

 Jun 10, 2020

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