I didn't understand Birthday Paradox completely >>>> is it that in every 23 person there is a 50% chance to find a two persons have the same birthday??(the day without the year)
Let me see.
Okay lets choose the people one at a time SO order does count.
The number of ways that the 23 people can all have different birthdays is 365C23 I think
The total number of ways 23 people can have birthdays = 365^23
The chance of finding 2 or more with the same birthday would be 1-(365C23)/(365^23)
1−(365!(365−23)!)36523=0.5072972343239854
which is slightly more than a 50% chance.
Now to my mathematician colleagues. I think that this is correct but can this be done using combinations instead of Permutations?
I canot think of a way
Let me see.
Okay lets choose the people one at a time SO order does count.
The number of ways that the 23 people can all have different birthdays is 365C23 I think
The total number of ways 23 people can have birthdays = 365^23
The chance of finding 2 or more with the same birthday would be 1-(365C23)/(365^23)
1−(365!(365−23)!)36523=0.5072972343239854
which is slightly more than a 50% chance.
Now to my mathematician colleagues. I think that this is correct but can this be done using combinations instead of Permutations?
I canot think of a way
First ask what's the probability that none of them have a birthday in common. Put the individuals in order from first to 23rd.
The probability that the 2nd person doesn't have the same birthday as the first is 364/365.
The probability that the 3rd doesn't have the same birthday as either of the first two is 363/365.
The probability that the 4th doesn't have the same birthday as any of the first three is 362/365.
...
...
The probability that the 23rd doesn't have the same birthday as any of the others is 343/365.
Therefore the overall probability that no one has a birthday in common is obtained by multiplying all the above probabilities together.
This is 364*363*362*...*343/36522 = 364!/((365-23)!*36522) = 365!/((365-23)!*36523)
The probability that at least two people have the same birthday is therefore 1 - 365!/((365-23)!*36523) as Melody has noted.