If I have a ** 1/80** of getting something, and I try

Also, if we were * 4* people trying

Cheers.

Guest Oct 24, 2017

#1**+2 **

If you have a 1/80 chance of getting a certain outcome, the probability you will get a certain outcome is (1 - outcome)^{tries}. So, the chance of not getting a 1/80 outcome over 173 tries is (1-(1/80))^173 = 0.1134799259264859, or about 11.35%. With 4 people doing this many tries, the outcome is just as likely as one person doing 4 times 173 tries, so the probability would be ((1-(1/80))^173)^4 = 0.0001658349921536, or about 0.0166%.

helperid1839321
Oct 24, 2017