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A schoolgirl's favorite meal is pasta, followed by ice cream for dessert. Her mother cooks pasta once a week. If she cooks pasta, then the probability that the girl gets ice cream for dessert is 2/3 . If she does not cook pasta, then the probability the girl gets ice cream for dessert is 1/4 . What is the probability that the girl gets ice cream for dessert?

 Feb 11, 2017
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I'll let you fill in the "tree" part

 

      cooks pasta                                     doesn't cook  pasta

            1/7                                                            6/7

 

   2/3                 1/3                                   1/4                  3/4 

ice cream      no ice cream                    ice cream       no ice cream

 

 

P [ice cream]  =   (1/7)(2/3)  + (6/7) (1/4)  =     2/21  + 6/28  =

 

                              2 / 21   +  3 / 14      =     [28 + 63] /  294  =

 

                              91 / 294   =  13 / 42   ≈ 30.95%

 

 

cool cool cool

 Feb 11, 2017

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