Mario and Bowser begin with a hat that has 5 b***s in it: 3 are red, 2 are green. Bowser secretly picks a ball and tells Mario it is red, although he might be lying about the color. If there is an 80% chance Bowser is lying, what is the probability that Mario draws 2 red b***s in a row after Bowser's initial draw?
+9665 It turns into b***s if you type b***s. That actually is B a L L s
If Bowser drew a green one, which means he is lying......
There is 75% that Mario's initial draw is red
And 66 2/3 % that Mario's second draw is red.
Multiply them together = 50%.
There are 80% chance that he has a 50% probability to draw 2 red ones in a row.
Therefore 80% x 50% = 40%
He has a 40% probability now.
If Bowser drew a red one, which means he isn't lying.....
There is 50% that Mario's initial draw is red
And 33 1/3 % that Mario's second draw is red.
Multiply them together = 16 1/6 %
There are 20% chance that he has a 16 1/6% probability to draw 2 red ones in a row.
Therefore 20% x 16 1/6% = 3 1/3%
He has a 40% + 3 1/3% probability now.
Therefore Mario has a 43 1/3% probability to draw 2 red b***s in a row.
