Plaintainmountain, a frequent (but disruptive) user on web2.0calc, spams every answer claiming it's AI-generated. After 5 warnings (w), mods decide to ban them if they make at least 3 (min for chaos) AI claims in the next 10 (n) posts. If the chance of a claim being AI-related is a concerning 40% (p), what is the probability (P) of Plaintainmountain getting banned? (Use the binomial probability formula).
Bonus: If getting banned translates to 2w weeks in jail, how long (in weeks) could Plaintainmountain be locked up?