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this question is hard

 May 21, 2016
 #1
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Using the rules:  0, 1 = blue; 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 = red

A)  blue - red - red - red - red - red - red - red - red - red 

 

B)  With success = blue, proportion of success = 1/10  =  0.10  =  10%

 

C)  With the theoretical probability of drawing 4 blues in a row as 0.16%, and drawing only 4 marbles, iit is highly unlikely that the person drew 4 blues in a row. However, if the marbles weren't thoroughly mixed, the student might have drawn the same marble 4 times in a row. 

 

Also, note that in this simulation, blue was drawn twice in a row; the last draw of the first 10 and the first draw of the second 10.  If the person drew thousands of times, it becomes highly unlikely that the person does not draw at least 4 blues in a row. (As it is likely that some person will win more than one lottery, so long as you do not specify which person and which lotteries.)

And, if thousands of persons drew marbles, it is likely that at least one person would draw at least 4 blue marbles in a row.

 May 21, 2016

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