Suppose that for a certain illness, the probability is 45% that a given patient will improve without treatment. Then the probability that at least n out of 20 patients will improve without treatment is given in the following table.
______________________________________________
| n | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|
| Probability | 0.41 | 0.25 |
| 0.13 | 0.058 | 0.021 | 0.0064 | 0.0015 |
|
We give an experimental drug to 20 patients who have this illness.
Suppose 16 of the 20 subjects showed improvement. In light of the design of the test, would it be appropriate to recommend this drug as a "cure" for this disease?
A) No, there needs to be an experiment with an increased quantity of the drug.
B) No, there needs to be a more defined experiment on a large scale.
C) No, it will not cure the disease.
D) Yes, it will cure the disease.
