A standard die has the numbers 1 to 6, each appearing with a probability of 1/6. If the die is modified so that the number 6 appears with half the frequency of the other numbers, what is the new probability of rolling a 6?
Thank you.
First, let me show you a wrong approach. I almost fell for it myself:
162=16∗12=112
This math above is simple, but this would imply that the probability of rolling a 6 is 1/12. Well, you'll see...
If you combine the probabilities of all events occurring, then the probability should be 1. Let's try that with our current answer. Let's test it:
112+16+16+16+16+16=1 | Create a common denominator, first |
112+212+212+212+212+212=1 | Add the numerators |
1112=1 | This is a false statement |
11/12 is not equal to one 1. Therefore, the probability cannot of rolling a 6 cannot be 1/12. However, there's a trick that we can use. How can we make 11/12=1? That's right, multiply by its reciprocal, 12/11. Therefore, multiply all of your fractions by it:
1211(112+16+16+16+16+16)
But wait! WE only need the probability of rolling a 6, so we only need to multiply 12/11 by 1/12!
1211∗112=12132=111
As you'll see below, there are other methods to do this problem. Of course, the method above is what I chose. Isn't it beautiful how multiple approaches still leads to the same final answer?
Another way:
Let the probability of rolling a 6 =p, then,
The probability of rolling every other number =2p,
Now will add up all probabilities =p + 2p + 2p + 2p + 2p + 2p =1
11p = 1
p = 1/11 new probability of rolling a 6.
Thanks, X^2 and guest.....here's another approach
Let the probability that each of the numbers 1- 5 are rolled = 1/n
Then..... the probability of rolling a "6" equal 1/2 of this = 1 / (2n)
And the total probability must equal 1
So
5 (1/n) + 1 / (2n) = 1
5/n + 1 /(2n) = 1
[ 10 + 1 ] / (2n) = 1
11 = 2n
11/2 = n
So......the probability of rolling a "6" = 1 / [ 2(11/2) ] = 1/11
Just as X^2 and guest found .....!!!!!