If a box has 106 components inside, and you want one specific component, then by randomly picking one component at a time, what is the probability of picking the component in 40 tries? I've been struggling to enumerate because I don't recall how, please explain. Thank you.
If a box has 106 components inside, and you want one specific component, then by randomly picking one component at a time, what is the probability of picking the component in 40 tries? I've been struggling to enumerate because I don't recall how, please explain. Thank you.
I'm not the best person to calculate probability, but I will suggest a couples of things and see if you agree with it:
The probability of picking the specific component on the first try is: 1/106, or conversely the probabilty of NOT picking it is: 1-(1/106)=0.9906. On the second try, you have the same probability of not picking the specific part, or: .9906, so for 40 tries, you would have:
.9906^40=0.6844. This is the probability that you will not pick the specific part. Therefore:
1 - .6844=.3156 X 100=31.56% chance that you will pick the right part in 40 tries.
How does that look? Others, much better at calculating probability will take a look at it in the next few hours, and let you know the right approach.
