Unfortunately, I really do not understand the logic behind what you have done.
That’s interesting ...if not off-putting.
What part of my logic do you not understand? You’ve demonstrated logic and mathematics for probability questions far more advanced and complex than this one. Investing a few minutes of time in analyzing the steps should bring brilliant illumination in understanding the logic. If there is a flaw in my logic, it should be discernable in one of the steps outlined above.
Here’s a list of all possible die rolls with all possible combinations of H/T for the three coins.
\(\begin{array}{|c|c|c|} \hline 1& 6 & HHH\\ 2& 6 & HHT\\ 3& 6 & HTH\\ 4& 6 & HTT\\ 5& 6 &THH\\ 6& 6 &THT\\ 7& 6 &TTH\\ 8& 6 &TTT\\ \hline \end{array} \) \(\begin{array}{|c|c|c|} \hline 9& 5 & HHH\\ 10& 5 & HHT\\ 11& 5 & HTH\\ 12& 5 & HTT\\ 13& 5 &THH\\ 14& 5 &THT\\ 15& 5 &TTH\\ 16& 5 &TTT\\ \hline \end{array} \) \(\begin{array}{|c|c|c|} \hline 17& 4 & HHH\\ 18& 4 & HHT\\ 19& 4 & HTH\\ 20& 4 & HTT\\ 21& 4 &THH\\ 22& 4 &THT\\ 23& 4 &TTH\\ 24& 4 &TTT\\ \hline \end{array} \) \(\begin{array}{|c|c|c|} \hline 25& 3 & HHH\\ 26& 3 & HHT\\ 27& 3 & HTH\\ 28& 3 & HTT\\ 29& 3 &THH\\ 30& 3 &THT\\ 31& 3 &TTH\\ 32& 3 &TTT\\ \hline \end{array} \) \(\begin{array}{|c|c|c|} \hline 33& 2 & HHH\\ 34& 2 & HHT\\ 35& 2 & HTH\\ 36& 2 & HTT\\ 37& 2 &THH\\ 38& 2 &THT\\ 39& 2 &TTH\\ 40& 2 &TTT\\ \hline \end{array} \) \(\begin{array}{|c|c|c|} \hline 41& 1 & HHH\\ 42& 1 & HHT\\ 43& 1 & HTH\\ 44& 1 & HTT\\ 45& 1 &THH\\ 46& 1 &THT\\ 47& 1 &TTH\\ 48& 1 &TTT\\ \hline \end{array} \)
Randomly pick a number from 1 to 48, and then do it again.
To me, the logic and math used for the tabulation of these simultaneous events seems simple and straightforward. The only complexity, which seems trivial after a full view, comes from the relative time (dimension) introduced in the question by use of the word “before,” What is the probability that I flip three heads twice in a row before I roll two 6's twice in a row?
This necessitates setting up an equation to calculate a probability that one event (two sequential sixes) occurs BEFORE another event (two sequential sets of three-heads) occurs. This requires factoring out non successes –where neither a six nor a set of three heads occurs, leaving only the successes of the die or the coins.
After factoring, (28.125%) of the twin events in the sample set will have a success for either the die or the set of coins. There are no ties in this sample set: if the three heads appear simultaneously with a six on the die, twice in two events then the coins have the success because the six has to appear twice BEFORE the set of three-heads occurs. In this space, the coins are successful (44.44%) of the time and the die is successful (66.66%) time. This means randomly sampling from this set will produce a selection where the coins are successful (44.44%) of the time time when compared to the die.
So the probability that a set of 3 coins has three heads twice in sequence before a die has two sixes in sequence is (44.44%).
GA