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Merely Unlucky?  No! Not merely. This unlucky series of failures is astronomically unlikely.

Ignoring the roulette wheel for the moment, this question has the same probability as flipping a fair coin 59 times and incorrectly guessing the outcome every time –or correctly guessing the outcome every time. It’s also the same probability as having 59 heads appear or 59 tails, or...

 

For this question, a failure is a statistical success. 

With a 50% probability of success/fail, the probability of 59 sequential failures is (0.5)^59 is: 

\(\dfrac{1}{576460752303423488} = 1.73472347597680709441192448139190673828125E-18\)

 

 Here are some perspectives comparing other probabilities to the probability of 59 sequential failures in guessing coin flips.

 

Lotteries: PowerBall, MegaMillions, and Keno 80/20

 

The probability of simultaneously winning both jackpots in the PowerBall and MegaMillions lotteries with a single ticket for each lottery is 6.5 times greater than (59) sequential failures in guessing coin flips.

 

The Math:

\(\dfrac {1}{292201338} * \dfrac {1}{302575350}= \dfrac {1}{88412922115818300}\)

 

\(\dfrac{576460752303423488}{88412922115818300} \approx 6.52\) times more likely than (59) sequential failures in guessing coin flips.

 

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Keno 80/20

Matching all 20 numbers on Keno 80/20 is 163 times more likely than (59) sequential failures in guessing coin flips.

 

The Math:

 Probability of matching all 20 numbers on Keno: 

\(\dfrac {1} {\dbinom{80}{20}} = 3535316142212174320 \)

 

 

\( \underbrace {576460752303423488}_{59 \;sequential \;coin \;fails} \div \underbrace {3535316142212174320 } _{20 \; Keno \; matches} \approx 163.13 \text{ times more likely}\)

 

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Blackjack:

 

The probability of 13.4064 sequential (natural) BlackJack wins is slightly less than the probability for (59) sequential failures in guessing coin flips.

 

Blackjack Math:

The probability of a single deck (natural) Blackjack (Blackjack on the initial deal of two (2) cards) is 

\(2* \dfrac {4}{13}* \dfrac {4}{51} = \dfrac {8}{169} \approx 0.047619\\\)

 

Inverse of  \(\dfrac {8}{169} = 21.125\)  (This is used as the base of a Logarithm)

\(\log_{21.125} (576460752303423488) \approx 13.4064\) sequential Blackjack wins for every (59) sequential failures in guessing coin flips.

 

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Royal Flush:

The probability of 3.0555  sequential (natural) Royal Flush wins in 5-card draw poker will occur slightly more than 3 times before (59) sequential failures in guessing coin flips.

 

Royal Flush Math:

The probability of a (natural) Royal Flush for 5-card draw poker is \(\dfrac {1}{649740}\)

 

This gives

 \(\large log_{649740}(576460752303423488) =3.0555\) sequential Blackjack wins for every (59) sequential failures in guessing coin flips.

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Testing the sample space:

Conducting this experiment 576,460,752,303,423,488 times gives an expectation of one (1) statistical success.   However, expectation is not probability. The probability of realizing this expectation is:

\(1- \left(\frac {576460752303423487}{576460752303423488}\right )^{576460752303423488} \approx  63.21 \% \)

 

So the probability of NOT realizing this expectation is:

\(\approx 36.79 \%\) (Not coincidentally, this is equal the inverse of Euler's Number (e) 2.71828...)

 

Yep, doing this experiment 576,460,752,303,423,488 times will result in failure well more than \(\dfrac {1}{3}\) of the time. 

How long to conduct an experiment?

 

Figure it will take about 40 seconds, with an experienced croupier spinning the (special, no green pocket zero(s)), red-black, even-odd, Roulette wheel and ball; and the gambler flipping the coin and placing the wager while the ball orbits the wheel.  That’s just one spin in the experimental attempt. The flipping and spinning continues until the gambler matches (wins) (or fails to match (loses) 59 times in sequence). If the gambler wins, the experiment begins again.   Most of the experiments will fail before the fifth flip and spin.  Remember, 576,460,752,303,423,488 is the number of experiments, NOT the number of coin flips and wheel spins, which will be many multiples.     

 

So how long would it take to do 576,460,752,303,423,488 coin flips and wheel spins, figuring 40 seconds for each one?

 

That’s 23,058,430,092,136,939,520 seconds. That’s a long time. It’s (53) times the age of the universe. Calculated using the Big Bang event as a starting point –the formation/creation of the universe –more formally, the starting point when the universe inflated and space-time began. (This should not be confused with the big bang of your mum and pop, the starting point that procreated you, even though that was also long ago.)

 

So Ron, do you still think the gambler is Merely Unlucky? 

If you do, I’m willing to bet a Rouble that some Russian fucked with the Roulette wheel? 

Known in Russia as Гребаная русская рулетка    Fucking Russian Roulette

 

GA

Dec 19, 2020
 #1
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0
Dec 19, 2020
 #1
avatar+26388 
+1

In triangle ABC, AB=c, BC=a, CA=b,
\(\angle A = \alpha\),
\(\angle B = \beta\), and \(\angle C = \gamma\)
where all angles are measured in degrees.
Suppose that \(b^2-a^2=ac\) and \(\beta^2 = \alpha \gamma\).
Find \(\lfloor 10\beta \rfloor\).

 

1.
\(\begin{array}{|rcll|} \hline b^2-a^2 &=&ac \\ (b-a)(b+a) &=& ac \\ \mathbf{(a-b)(a+b)} &=& \mathbf{-ac} \\ \hline \end{array}\)

 

Mollweide's formula

\(\begin{array}{|rcll|} \hline (a-b)\cos\left(\dfrac{\gamma}{2}\right) &=& c\cdot \sin\left(\dfrac{\alpha-\beta}{2} \right) \qquad (1) \\ (a+b)\sin\left(\dfrac{\gamma}{2}\right) &=& c\cdot \cos\left(\dfrac{\alpha-\beta}{2} \right) \qquad (2) \\ \hline \end{array}\)

 

(1) x (2)

\(\begin{array}{|rcll|} \hline (a-b)(a+b)\sin\left(\dfrac{\gamma}{2}\right)\cos\left(\dfrac{\gamma}{2}\right) &=& c^2\sin\left(\dfrac{\alpha-\beta}{2} \right)\cos\left(\dfrac{\alpha-\beta}{2} \right) \\ -ac\dfrac{\sin(\gamma)}{2} &=& c^2\dfrac{\sin(\alpha-\beta)}{2} \\ -a\sin(\gamma) &=& c\sin(\alpha-\beta) \\ a\sin(\gamma) &=& c\left(-\sin(\alpha-\beta)\right) \\ a\sin(\gamma) &=& c\left(\sin(-(\alpha-\beta))\right) \\ a\sin(\gamma) &=& c\sin(\beta-\alpha) \\ \dfrac{a}{c} &=& \dfrac{\sin(\beta-\alpha)}{\sin(\gamma)} \\ && \boxed{\dfrac{a}{c}=\dfrac{\sin(\alpha)} {\sin(\gamma)} } \\ \dfrac{\sin(\beta-\alpha)}{\sin(\gamma)} &=& \dfrac{\sin(\alpha)} {\sin(\gamma)} \\ \sin(\beta-\alpha) &=& \sin(\alpha) \\ \beta-\alpha &=& \alpha \\ \beta &=& 2\alpha \quad \text{or} \quad \mathbf{\alpha = \dfrac{\beta}{2}} \\ \hline \end{array}\)

 

2.

\(\begin{array}{|rcll|} \hline \beta^2 &=& \alpha \gamma \quad | \quad \mathbf{\alpha = \dfrac{\beta}{2}} \\ \beta^2 &=& \dfrac{\beta}{2} \gamma\\ \beta&=& \dfrac{\gamma}{2} \\ \mathbf{\gamma} &=& \mathbf{2\beta} \\ \hline \end{array}\)

 

3.

\(\begin{array}{|rcll|} \hline \mathbf{ \alpha + \beta + \gamma } &=& \mathbf{ 180^\circ } \quad | \quad \alpha = \dfrac{\beta}{2} \\ \dfrac{\beta}{2} + \beta + \gamma &=& 180^\circ \\ \dfrac{3}{2}\cdot \beta + \gamma &=& 180^\circ \quad | \quad \gamma = 2\beta \\ \dfrac{3}{2}\cdot\beta + 2\beta &=& 180^\circ \quad | \quad :2 \\ \dfrac{3}{4}\cdot\beta + \beta &=& 90^\circ \\ \dfrac{7}{4}\cdot\beta &=& 90^\circ \\ \beta &=& \dfrac{4}{7}\cdot 90^\circ \\ \beta &=& 51.4285714286^\circ \\ 10\cdot \beta &=& 514.285714286^\circ \\ \mathbf{ \lfloor 10\beta \rfloor } &=& \mathbf{ 514 } \\ \hline \end{array}\)

 

laugh

Dec 19, 2020

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