A bag contains five white balls and four black balls. Your goal is to draw two black balls.
You draw two balls at random. Once you have drawn two balls, you put back any white balls, and redraw so that you again have two drawn balls. What is the probability that you now have two black balls? (Include the probability that you chose two black balls on the first draw.)
Winning draws
BB (4/9)*(3/8) = 12/72
BW B (4/9)*(5/8)*(3/8) = 60/576
WB B (5/9)*(4/8)*(3/8) = 60/576
WW BB (5/9)*(4/8)*(4/9)*(3/8) = 240/5184
ADDED = 12/72+120/576+240/5184 = 91/216
Non winning draws
WW WB (5/9)*(4/8)*(5/9)*(4/8) = 400/5184
WW BW (5/9)*(4/8)*(4/9)*(5/8) = 400/5184
WW WW (5/9)*(4/8)*(5/9)*(4/8) = 400/5184
WB W (5/9)*(4/8)*(5/8) = 100/576
BW W (4/9)*(5/8)*(5/8) = 100/576
ADDED= 1200/5184+200/576 =125/216
125+91=216 great.
I draw a probability tree and listed all the probabilities on it.
I ended up with 9 possible scenarios and 4 of them were favourable.
If I work out the probabilities of each of the favourable ones and add them together then hopefully that will be the answer.
Although I would check it by adding all possible outcomes probabilities together (They should add to 1)