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A bag contains five white balls and four black balls. Your goal is to draw two black balls.

You draw two balls at random. Once you have drawn two balls, you put back any white balls, and redraw so that you again have two drawn balls. What is the probability that you now have two black balls? (Include the probability that you chose two black balls on the first draw.)

 

Winning draws

BB                        (4/9)*(3/8)   =  12/72

BW   B                 (4/9)*(5/8)*(3/8)    =  60/576

WB    B                 (5/9)*(4/8)*(3/8)    =  60/576

WW   BB               (5/9)*(4/8)*(4/9)*(3/8)  =  240/5184

ADDED = 12/72+120/576+240/5184 = 91/216

 

Non winning draws

WW   WB             (5/9)*(4/8)*(5/9)*(4/8)    =   400/5184

WW   BW             (5/9)*(4/8)*(4/9)*(5/8)      =   400/5184

WW   WW             (5/9)*(4/8)*(5/9)*(4/8)    =    400/5184

WB     W                (5/9)*(4/8)*(5/8)            =    100/576

BW      W                (4/9)*(5/8)*(5/8)            =   100/576

ADDED= 1200/5184+200/576 =125/216

 

125+91=216 great.

 

 

I draw a probability tree and listed all the probabilities on it.

I ended up with 9 possible scenarios and 4 of them were favourable.

If I work out the probabilities of each of the favourable ones and add them together then hopefully that will be the answer.

Although I would check it by adding all possible outcomes probabilities together (They should add to 1)

Jul 22, 2020

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