Questions   
Sort: 
 #5
avatar+118654 
+1

Every time I use a piece of scrap paper, I crumple it up and try to shoot it inside the recycling bin across the room. I'm pretty good at it: If I shoot 5 pieces of paper at the recycling bin, at least one of them will make it inside the recycling bin with probability 211/243. If I shoot 6 pieces of paper at the recycling bin, what's the probability at least two of them make it inside the recycling bin?

 

Edit:

NOTE: I have given the correct answer to the WRONG question.  There is another post below where I have answered the question that was actually asked    blush

 

If I shoot 5 bits the prob that they all miss is   

\( P(all\;fail\;on\; 5\; tries)=5C0*(F)^5=F^5\\ P(don't \;all\;fail\;with\; 5\; tries)=1-F^5=\frac{211}{243}\\ so\\ F^5=\frac{243-211}{243}=\frac{32}{243}\\~\\ F=\frac{2}{3}\qquad S=\frac{1}{3} \)

 

 

\( P(none\; in)=6C0\;* \; (\frac{1}{3})^0\;*\;(\frac{2}{3})^6\\ P(none\; in)=1\;* \; 1\;*\;(\frac{2}{3})^6\\ P(none\; in)=(\frac{2}{3})^6\\ P(none\; in)=\frac{64}{729} \\~\\ P(one\; in)=6C1\;* \; (\frac{1}{3})^1\;*\;(\frac{2}{3})^5\\ P(one\; in)=6\;* \; (\frac{1}{3})\;*\;(\frac{32}{243})\\ P(one\; in)=2\;*\;(\frac{32}{243})\\ P(one\; in)=\frac{64}{243}\\ \\~\\ P(two\; in)=6C2\;* \; (\frac{1}{3})^2\;*\;(\frac{2}{3})^4\\ P(two\; in)=15\;* \; (\frac{1}{9})\;*\;(\frac{16}{81})\\ P(two\; in)=5\;* \; (\frac{1}{3})\;*\;(\frac{16}{81})\\ P(two\; in)= \frac{80}{243}\\ \\~\\ P(\text{no more than 2 in)}=\frac{64}{729}+\frac{64}{243}+ \frac{80}{243}\\~\\ P(\text{no more than 2 in)}=\frac{64+3*64+3*80}{729}\\ P(\text{no more than 2 in)}=\frac{496}{729}\\ \)

\(P(\text{no more than 2 in)}\approx 0.68\)

 

There could easily be careless mistakes, maybe even careless logic mistakes, but the underlying idea is sound.

My answer almost agrees with the second guest, and much of the logic is in agreement with Gino.

So we all had similar ideas.

 

Coding:
P(all\;fail\;on\; 5\; tries)=5C0*(F)^5=F^5\\
P(don't \;all\;fail\;with\; 5\; tries)=1-F^5=\frac{211}{243}\\
so\\
F^5=\frac{243-211}{243}=\frac{32}{243}\\~\\
F=\frac{2}{3}\qquad S=\frac{1}{3}

 


P(none\; in)=6C0\;* \; (\frac{1}{3})^0\;*\;(\frac{2}{3})^6\\
P(none\; in)=1\;* \; 1\;*\;(\frac{2}{3})^6\\
P(none\; in)=(\frac{2}{3})^6\\
P(none\; in)=\frac{64}{729}
\\~\\
P(one\; in)=6C1\;* \; (\frac{1}{3})^1\;*\;(\frac{2}{3})^5\\
P(one\; in)=6\;* \; (\frac{1}{3})\;*\;(\frac{32}{243})\\
P(one\; in)=2\;*\;(\frac{32}{243})\\
P(one\; in)=\frac{64}{243}\\
\\~\\
P(two\; in)=6C2\;* \; (\frac{1}{3})^2\;*\;(\frac{2}{3})^4\\
P(two\; in)=15\;* \; (\frac{1}{9})\;*\;(\frac{16}{81})\\
P(two\; in)=5\;* \; (\frac{1}{3})\;*\;(\frac{16}{81})\\
P(two\; in)= \frac{80}{243}\\

\\~\\
P(\text{no more than 2 in)}=\frac{64}{729}+\frac{64}{243}+ \frac{80}{243}\\~\\
P(\text{no more than 2 in)}=\frac{64+3*64+3*80}{729}\\
P(\text{no more than 2 in)}=\frac{496}{729}\\

Feb 10, 2020
 #6
avatar+1490 
+2
Feb 10, 2020
 #6
avatar+865 
0
Feb 10, 2020
 #2
avatar+12530 
+4
Feb 10, 2020

2 Online Users