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 #2
avatar+130511 
+5

There's something interesting about this problem that I'd like to bring out.....many people think that there is some "righting" force in nature that tends to bring things "back to center"....in this case........many think that, if they haven't been successful after "N" flips, that there is a greater chance that they WILL be successful on the next flip......this isn't true as shown below...

The probability that a person has one success on any of 6 coin flips  = 1 minus the probaility that he isn't successful on any of them.....

Thus......before any flips are attempted.....the probabilty of success = 1 - (1/2)^6 = 0.984375

Let's suppose he isn't successful after the first toss......then he has five remaining in which to achieve a success and this probability = 1 - (1/2)^5 = 0.96875.....notice that this isn't as good as before the first flip

Look at the remaining probabilities, assuming no successes on previous attempts

After the second toss =  1 - (1/2)^4 = 0.9375

After the third toss =  1 - (1/2)^3 = 0.875

After the fourth toss =  1 - (1/2)^2 = .75

Notice, that as more unsuccessful flips are made, the probability of attaining just one success drops....

And, after the fifth toss......the probabilty is just....1 - (1/2)^1 = 1/2 = .50 ......just what we would expect it to be on one remaining toss !!!

This demonsrates something known as the Gambler's Fallacy......(it's why those big buildings exist in Las Vegas....!!!).......why does this happen???....because, as more "failures" pile up in the sequence of some N trials, the fewer chances there are remaining for a person to achieve a success........!!!

 

Dec 9, 2014
 #368
avatar+118723 
+11

@@ End of Day Wrap       Tues 9/12/14       Sydney,   Australia         Time 10:40 pm          ♬

 

Hi everyone,

 

There were many great questions the last couple of days and fabulous answers were given by TayJay, GoldenLeaf, geno3141, CPhill, Heureka, Baelovesmaths, Landry, happy7, Rosala, Alan, jomarie and saseflower.       A big thank you to each of you.       

 

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Interest posts:

 

1) Rosala shared her heritage walk with us.  Thanks Rosala.   

http://web2.0calc.com/questions/lets-end-the-day-with-amusement

2) I really like Chris's solution to this trig limit.   

http://web2.0calc.com/questions/lim-t-0-tan-12t-sin-4t

3) Another not so difficult polynomial question - Thanks Chris 

http://web2.0calc.com/questions/help-please_64

4) Some difficult trig integration.   (Alan and Melody and CPhill)

 http://web2.0calc.com/questions/integral-problem

5) Volume of a sphere - A really interesting analyis by fiflvm97 and CPhill.

(I have added this to our reference material sticky thread)

http://web2.0calc.com/questions/what-is-the-volume-of-a-sphere

6) Repeating and terminating decimals.  Thanks Chris, I shall try to remember.  

http://web2.0calc.com/questions/is-1-17-a-repeating-or-terminating-decimal

7)  Finding the lowest common multiple (LCM)   Melody

http://web2.0calc.com/questions/what-is-the-lowest-common-multiple-of-2x3-2x5-4x7-and-750

8) Area problem  Thanks Chris

http://web2.0calc.com/questions/area-problem_2

9)  $$\mbox{A look at the restrictions on }\sqrt{a} \times \sqrt{b}=\sqrt{ab}$$   Thanks GoldenLeaf, Anon, Melody and Alan 

http://web2.0calc.com/questions/what-is-the-domain-of-the-formula-square-root-of-a-square-root-of-b-square-root-of-ab

10)  Advanced Statistics Questions   Thanks  Melody and Alan

http://web2.0calc.com/questions/bio-statistics#r1

 

Thanks everyone.   Have a good day.   

 

                    ♫♪  ♪ ♫                                ♬ ♬ MELODY ♬ ♬                                 ♫♪  ♪ ♫

Dec 9, 2014
 #184
avatar+118723 
0

Wed 10/12/14

1) Happy's tribute to many on the forum.  Thanks Happy   

http://web2.0calc.com/questions/thank-you-to-everyone-who-makes-this-site-truly-awesome

2) Zegroes is back :)

 http://web2.0calc.com/questions/what-is-root#r23

3) find the quadratic equation.  A great answer from Geno   Thanks    

http://web2.0calc.com/questions/how-do-i-find-a-quadratic-equation-given-only-both-zeroes-and-the-vertex-s-y-coordinate

4) A discussion of chance.   Thanks Chris

http://web2.0calc.com/questions/what-are-the-odds-of-losing-6-coin-flips-in-a-row

5) these require a little thought - thanks Chris

 http://web2.0calc.com/questions/how-to-find-the-coefficient-of-x-in-the-expansion-of-3x-2-x-5

6) I enjoyed this clip.  I thought you might too.

http://web2.0calc.com/questions/is-the-earth-actually-flat

7) Which fraction is bigger?      Thanks Chris and Alan 

http://web2.0calc.com/questions/compare-which-one-is-bigger

 

 

                  ♫♪  ♪ ♫                                ♬ ♬ MELODY ♬ ♬                                 ♫♪  ♪ ♫

Dec 9, 2014
 #1
avatar+118723 
+5
Dec 9, 2014

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